The world’s seven billionth person drew her first breath last month. According to the United Nations some 80 billion people have walked on the earth before her, and more than seven billion are alive today. Child rights group Plan International named the seven billionth as Indian-born Nargis. She is one of 51 babies to be born every minute in India and one of 267 babies born every minute worldwide.
The wider press has had its usual fun hypothesising the end of the world due to over population. But a sane voice has floated above the rest and that is of the logical thinker asking what action needs to be taken to manage this rapidly expanding population.
And this is where we can cash in.
The construction industry is tightly linked to population, its growth and its movement. And as the world becomes more congested there becomes an increasing case – as can be seen in the world’s mega cities – to go underground.
Over the next decade the world’s population is projected to grow by 10 per cent to 7.7 billion. The construction industry is predicted to grow by 67 per cent over the same period, from USD 7.2tn to USD 12tn according to Price Waterhouse Coopers’ forecast report Global Construction 2020.
It may not surprise many that the countries with the fastest growing populations, India and China, also have the fastest growing construction markets. Of the USD 4.8tn growth predicted for the global construction market, India and China account for 38 per cent of this. China, which became the world’s largest construction market in 2010 will remain so over the coming decade. The US will hold onto second position as populations expand – with its own population growth aided by immigration. By 2018 India will be the world’s third largest construction market.
While India is seeing staggering population growth, especially in its cities as the country urbanises, it will take some time for it to reach the dizzy heights of China. Come 2020 its construction market will still only be a third of the size of China’s.
Unfortunately, the loser in the population boom is Western Europe. With its slow increase in opulation, bankrupt economies and governments, Western Europe has few positive drivers. Over the next decade the UK construction market can expect some 10 per cent growth compared to 135 per cent in Asian markets.
But tunnelling is an international business and experience counts. The special report on China this month (see page 29) shows that the country is running out of simple places to build tunnels and is starting to lean on the expertise of the West to bring the projects to fruition.
Despite fears of resource shortages and other apocalyptic media spin, growth is good for business. The eighth billionth baby will be born in 2025 and will bring with him or her a reliable need for building.
Jon Young
